An example of UK stagnation? is the £45bn drone promise flying away?

 As we lobby for the advancement of the UK’s drone sector, it’s crucial to address the perceived regulatory stagnation that is impeding investment and progress after more postponement this year. While the potential of drones to revolutionise, various industries is widely recognised, the slow pace of regulatory development poses a significant risk of the UK falling behind in a rapidly evolving global market.

 

According to the updated "Skies Without Limits 2.0" (2022) report by PwC and its 2023 echo “Building Trust in Commercial Drones”, drones have the potential to contribute up to £45 billion to the UK economy by 2030, with considerable savings in net costs and substantial reductions in carbon emissions​​. These figures aren’t just impressive; they represent a seismic shift in productivity, efficiency, and environmental sustainability. However, the realisation of this potential is heavily contingent on the establishment of clear and stable regulations.

 

For example, the development of Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) regulations is crucial for enhancing drone efficiency, enabling operations beyond direct human observation. Such regulations allow drones to cover greater distances, a significant step beyond the current Visual Line of Sight (VLOS) regulations, which require drones to remain within the operator's view. Despite the importance of BVLOS for advancing drone capabilities, progress is hindered by the challenges in establishing stable VLOS regulations. Before we can fully embrace BVLOS, we must first refine and solidify specific VLOS rules and move away from constraining ‘one size fits all’ operations. Progress is being made but at crawling pace and the UK is being lapped by others on the track.

 

Setting the regulatory landscape for drone operations is a daunting task, especially in the face of a critical shortage of robust data necessary for thorough risk quantification analysis. The regulator, the CAA, constrained by limited state resources, often finds itself in a challenging position where they must rely on conservative risk assessments based on qualitative measures or assumed risks. This reliance is often a pragmatic response to the scarce data available, particularly data that could codify the frequency and nature of actual drone incidents, rather than being forced make assumptions due to probable incident underreporting.

 

While this approach is understandable given the current resource limitations, it inadvertently leads to a cautious regulatory direction that hinders the development of progressive drone regulations. Hence the stagnation. Acknowledging these constraints highlights the urgent need to equip the regulator with admissible data and resources, enabling a shift towards more precise, evidence-based decision-making in the drone sector to open the risk appetite aperture.

 

Therefore, it’s imperative that we emphasise the need to accelerate resource allocation for gathering the necessary data. This data must be robust and convincing enough for regulators to set rules based on “following the probability science.” It's not just about proving what drones can do; it’s about demonstrating, with empirical evidence, the safety and efficiency of drone operations under various conditions.

 

If £45bn or other significate value is at stake it's important that ministerial directives prioritise the enormous financial potential of the UK's drone sector. This looming opportunity loss should be a tangible motivator at the highest leadership levels. The UK economy is not necessarily a favourably weighted consideration of the policy designers and implementors at regulator level. They could be forgiven for overlooking the return of investment for the UK economy, but not so much the overseeing Department who should be alert to economic opportunity.

 

To unlock the opportunities outlined in the PwC report, we need to progress and take decisions based on well-resourced data acquisition. The UK’s relative strength in research must be leveraged to overcome the current barriers in regulatory fear​​. Initiatives like the UKRI/CAA Future Flight Challenge show promise in funding, but more is needed to catalyse growth and tackle both technical and regulatory barriers​​, and that’s about Department resourcing.

 

While strict regulation of drones is essential for safety and security, a shifting goalpost and lack of stable regulations is a major roadblock to growth in the sector. The UK risks missing out on significant economic and environmental benefits that drones offer. Therefore, we urge the UK Department of Transport and Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy to expedite the stabilisation of drone regulations and to invest in acquiring the data necessary for informed, laser focused, science-based regulatory decisions. This is not just about keeping pace; it’s about leading the way in a field that promises to redefine industries and improve lives. Let’s hope we can make measurable progress in the New Year.